Author ORCID Identifier

https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6310-2707

Semester

Spring

Date of Graduation

2025

Document Type

Dissertation

Degree Type

PhD

College

Davis College of Agriculture, Natural Resources and Design

Department

Division of Resource Economics & Management

Committee Chair

Alan R. Collins

Committee Co-Chair

Ana Claudia Sant'Anna

Committee Member

Siddhartha Bora

Committee Member

Paul Ziemkiewicz

Committee Member

Peter V. Schaeffer

Abstract

As global economies face increasing resource dependencies and supply chain challenges, it becomes essential to understand the vulnerabilities that threaten economic stability. This dissertation investigates three empirical issues in agribusiness and critical minerals using econometric models to estimate the following: 1) the impact of supply chain disruptions on stock market returns during COVID-19; 2) the extraction of rare earth elements from acid mine drainage treatment by investigating the impacts of ownership and legislation in West Virginia and Pennsylvania; 3) China-to�FOBb (Free-on-Board) price transmission in rare earth elements markets: a copula-based dynamic tail dependence analysis.

The first essay evaluates how events during the COVID-19 pandemic, related to disruptions in the meat supply chain, impacted meat processing companies’ stock market returns. An event study approach is used to examine these disruptions by looking at the following four events: 1) the announcement of COVID-19 as a pandemic; 2) the first case of an outbreak in a meat processing plant; 3) outbreaks among employees in individual firms, and 4) the lockdowns in various states due to COVID-19. Datasets utilized in the analyses include S&P 500, Google Trends, financial beta, and data collected for 14 publicly traded meat processing companies in the US. The results show that nationwide events had no statistically significant impact on average abnormal returns of meat processing companies. However, individually, firms experienced negative abnormal returns. COVID- 19 related events in individual meat processing companies had a temporary negative abnormal return in the days prior to the event. This research will shed light on the stock market returns of meat processing companies in reaction to supply chain disruptions linked to COVID-19. This essay contributes by using Google trend data and the financial beta to estimate expected returns. Findings provide significant insights to investors on how sensitive stock market returns are to outbreaks that affect human health.

The second essay examines the challenges of and barriers to rare earth element (REE) extraction from acid mine drainage (AMD) treatment in Pennsylvania and West Virginia. These two states differ in terms of legislation regarding REE extraction, West Virginia House Bill 4003 grants commercial ownership of elements extracted from AMD to the extractor. We surveyed AMD treatment operators, representing nonprofit organizations, private companies, and government agencies, operating under various ownership structures, including landowner agreements and surface or coal mineral rights ownership. Although the legal frameworks governing REE ownership differ between the two states, operator views on REE ownership are largely aligned. A simple comparison of survey responses shows that operators in West Virginia are more likely to express an interest in REE extraction investment than Pennsylvania operators. Most operators agreed that entities maintaining the treatment systems should claim ownership rights to the extracted REE, and profits should be directed to support AMD treatment. Our Bayesian logistic regression analysis identified ownership of surface rights as the most influential factor in operator interest in REE extraction investment. Those operators who own the land surface rights where their treatment systems are located are more than twenty-four times more likely to express interest in investing in REE extraction compared to those without surface rights. These findings suggest that, while certain ownership and operational factors promote investment, broader legislative and economic frameworks do not appear to drive state-level disparities in the development of a REE industry.

The third essay examines the dynamic relationship between Chinese domestic (EXW) and global (FOB) prices for rare earth elements (REEs) under extreme market conditions. Using a copula�based dynamic tail dependence approach integrated with an error correction model (ECM), we analyze price transmission and co-movements between these markets. Our focus on tail dependency allows us to assess how prices respond to extreme market events, offering insights into vulnerabilities within the China-World REEs supply chain. The results show a significant tail dependence between EXW and FOB prices, indicating that global prices are highly sensitive to shocks from the Chinese market. The ECM further reveals that, despite the role of China as the leading REE supplier, it acts as a price taker, with its domestic prices responding to global market movements. Volatility analysis using the GJR-GARCH and DCC-GARCH models reveals persistent volatility in global markets, particularly for metals like Cerium and Lanthanum, where market shocks have long-lasting effects. This suggests that disruptions, whether from geopolitical tensions or supply chain issues, slow the market’s return to stability. In contrast, the Chinese domestic market tends to recover more quickly, likely due to internal factors such as government interventions. These findings provide important insights for policymakers and industry participants, particularly in managing risks associated with supply chain disruptions in the REE market. Understanding the dynamic price relationships between China and global markets is important for navigating the broader effects of policy changes on market stability.

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