Date of Graduation
Eberly College of Arts and Sciences
Jamie E. Jacobs.
This research develops an explanation of the causal factors that influence state concessions offered in negotiated settlements ending civil wars. It proposes an explanation drawn from bargaining theory, existing literature addressing the likelihood of negotiated settlements, and inductively derived variables. Specifically, it integrates the link between several general factors associated with conflict---the costs of war, incentives to cheat, the divisibility of stakes, the degree of democracy of the state, the presence or absence of a stalemate, and the timing and location of the settlement---and the degree to which states make concessions to the rebels. The relationships between these factors are analyzed quantitatively using probit and Tobit models as well as with qualitative case narratives using a dataset that describes all civil wars beginning between 1945 and 1997. The basic conclusion of this research is that bargaining theory by itself does not adequately identify the factors that influence state concessions. It does, however, provide some explanatory power and can be enhanced by the inclusion of existing literature and the results of the inductive analysis.
Vaughan, Frank, "Win, lose, and draw: Civil war and the determinants of state concessions" (2006). Graduate Theses, Dissertations, and Problem Reports. 2500.