Date of Graduation

2003

Document Type

Dissertation/Thesis

Abstract

Problem. This study used the Delphi Technique of forecasting and a panel of individuals having the knowledge of the University Housing Profession to ascertain the likelihood of events to happen within the next 20 years and the level of impact of those events upon the profession. Methodology. Six nominators selected for their expertise within the University Housing Profession nominated individuals to serve as expert panelists. Eighty-three individuals were nominated. The 22 individuals with more than two nominations were invited to participate while the remaining panelists were selected randomly. Panelists were either CHO's (Chief Housing Officers) with at least five years of experience, or faculty members with a research interest in Student Affairs or Housing. Thirty-four panelists began the three-round Delphi and 30 completed the study for a response rate of 88%. In the first round, panelists responded with 254 events likely to happen in the next 20 years. These items were synthesized to 101 items for Round Two, where panelists were asked to assign one of five timeframes and an impact rating of one through seven for each item. The Median Consensus Range that included at least 68% of the respondents was calculated for each item. Panelists who scored outside of this range could change their response to the median or defend their response in Round Three. The study results include the medians from Rounds Two and Three, the frequency distributions from Round Three and the minority opinions. Consensus was defined as M+/−1 for T and M+/−1.5 for I. Conclusions. In general, the study results were consistent with current literature although alcohol use and Affirmative Action were absent from results. Items associated with operational considerations such as technology, finances, and facilities tended to have the highest impact ratings (defined as M ≥ 5 on a 7-point Likert Scale). Parental involvement also ranked highly. The data also suggest that housing practitioners are likely to become more involved in academic initiatives on campus. Using Bolman & Deals (1997) leadership frames as a context, the varied nature of the high-impact events suggests that CHO's could increase their effectiveness by using a multi-frame leadership style.

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