Semester

Summer

Date of Graduation

2022

Document Type

Dissertation

Degree Type

PhD

College

Davis College of Agriculture, Natural Resources and Design

Department

Division of Forestry and Natural Resources

Committee Chair

Jingxin Wang

Committee Co-Chair

Debangsu Bhattacharyya

Committee Member

Debangsu Bhattacharyya

Committee Member

Xiaoli Etienne

Committee Member

Damon Hartley

Committee Member

Jamie Schuler

Abstract

First, a data-driven holistic analysis framework was developed to aid the industrial development of forest biomass for bioenergy to promote the regional bioeconomy. Leveraging the existing but fragmented multi-source data, four components of industrial bioenergy development were integrated into the framework including spatial statistical analysis of biomass feedstock and bioenergy production, machine learning-based suitability assessment, bioenergy plant sites identification and ranking, and socio-economic impacts assessment. A case study was conducted for forest biomass to pellet fuel in the U.S. Mid-Atlantic region. Our results indicate that the great potential of forest biomass with high variation at the county level is primarily clustered in western Pennsylvania and eastern North Carolina. Integrating the datasets of biomass feedstock, road conditions, employment status, income status, population, and current bioenergy production, the machine-learning model demonstrates good performance for bioenergy industry suitability assessment, with the high-suitable areas accounting for 19.76%, medium-suitable areas for 34.74%, and low-suitable areas for 54.49% in the region. Forest biomass availability and distance to major roads are the two top factors affecting bioenergy industry development. We identified 65 industrial sites within the suitable areas and their rankings were derived as a reference of the bioenergy development priority. The socio-economic impacts assessment indicates that the one-year construction of a medium-size pellet fuel facility (75,000 dry tons/year) could create 127 jobs, $8.78 million of labor income, while the operation could create 202 jobs, $10.52 million of labor income, $14.66 million of value-added, and $33.61 million of output in total per year for the state-level economy.

Second, an integrated modeling framework for supply chain management of forest biomass utilization for bioenergy, including components of regional suitability and facility siting assessments and supply chain optimization, was developed in this study to support the bioenergy industry development in the eastern U.S. Three pillars of sustainability including economic, environmental, and social considerations were considered in the multi-criteria analysis for regional suitability and facility siting assessments. The mathematical programming models were developed to assess the delivered costs of forest biomass across the region in association with the identified biomass processing sites, facility scale distribution, carbon emission reduction, and uncertainties. The results indicated that 30 industrial sites were identified as the top priority sites for forest biomass-based bioenergy industry development in the high-suitable areas which accounted for 24.26% of the total area of the entire region. The delivered cost of forest biomass for these sites with assumed uniform medium scales ranged from $41.90 to $50.17 per dry Mg with an average of $44.77 per dry Mg. The stumpage, harvesting, storage, preprocessing, and transportation accounted for 34.66%, 45.54%, 0.0004%, 5.58%, and 14.21% of the total delivered cost, respectively. Taking the plant scale into the optimization, 28 sites can be used for small- and medium-scale plants, only 2 sites are suitable for large-scale plants, while no site is for extra-large-scale. Most of the larger-scale plants can be located in the coastal areas of the southeastern US, while most of the smaller-scale plants are feasible to be established in the upper and middle Appalachian region. When the carbon emission of the biomass supply chain is reduced from 0 to 3.3%, the average delivered cost of biomass would increase 13.63% from $ 44.77 to $ 50.87 /dry Mg, and the average opportunity cost of the carbon emission reduction is $15.37/Mg CO2 eq. Furthermore, considering uncertainties of biomass availability, harvesting cost, preprocessing cost, and transportation cost, the average delivered cost of biomass could reach as high as $57.24 /dry Mg.

Third, the life-cycle economics and Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions of forest biomass utilization for value-added bioproducts in the eastern US were comprehensively evaluated via the integration of field studies, a Bayesian-based statistical learning model, techno-economic analysis, and life cycle assessment. In specific, by investigating and summarizing the typical forest biomass harvesting systems across the region, the forest biomass harvesting costs are spatially grouped and mapped for four classified subregions across the eastern US. Overall, with 95% confidence the forest biomass harvesting cost is between $21.99 and $44.33/dry Mg, while the GHG emission is between 14.79 and 98.80 kg CO2 eq./dry Mg forest biomass harvested. Furthermore, for the forest biomass utilization for four alternative value-added bioproducts in the eastern US, the minimum selling price is $177.82/Mg for pellet fuel, $110.24/MWh for biopower, $1059.4/Mg for biochar, and $4.98/Gallon for aviation fuel. The life-cycle GHG emissions are 149.80 kg CO2 eq./Mg pellet fuel, 52.22 kg CO2 eq./MWh biopower, 792.12 kg CO2 eq./Mg biochar, and 2.13 kg CO2 eq./Gallon aviation fuel, respectively. Considering the uncertainties, the 95% confidence intervals of minimum selling prices range from $164.77 to $190.97 /Mg for pellet fuel with an 81.85% probability to be profitable, from $100.20 to $120.21 /MWh for biopower with a 49.38% probability to be profitable, from $1000.91 to $1109.25/Mg for biochar with a 79.51% probability to be profitable, from $4.86 to $5.54/Gallon for aviation fuel with an 0.03% probability to be profitable. Moreover, the minimum selling prices of pellet fuel and biochar are much less affected by the market changes than those of biopower and aviation fuel. However, the production of biopower and aviation fuel has lower carbon intensities than that of pellet fuel and biochar.

Forth, the environmental and economic impacts of innovative amino-acid-based CO2 capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) technology and its associated decarbonization pathways in the context of national electricity generation, were quantitatively assessed using life cycle assessment and economic input-output model. The results indicated that the CO2 utilization process could achieve carbon negative, with the life-cycle global warming potential (GWP) impact of (-2,384.98) – (-2,367.61) Mg CO2 eq. /1000 Mg CO2 utilized. The operation of 1,000 Mg CO2 utilization can annually provide 2.44-3.25 employments, $196,594.9-261,590.66 labor income, $150,662.9-476,659.29 value-added, and $1,045,944.00-1,528,848.80 industry output to the national economy. While for the CO2 capture process, the life-cycle GWP impact is 237.74-303.47 Mg CO2 eq. /1000 Mg CO2 captured. The operation of 1,000 Mg CO2 capture can annually provide 0.29-0.35 employments, $21,230.76-25,199.29 labor income, $50,246.06-52,300.09 value-added, and $102,777.10-107,570.10 industry output to the national economy. Furthermore, for the decarbonization pathways of coal-based power generation with CO2 utilization and CO2 capture, and biopower production with CO2 utilization and CO2 capture, the GWP impacts are -917, 463, -1843, -558 Mg CO2 eq. /1,000 MWh electricity generated, respectively. The CCUS pathways of coal-based power generation with CO2 utilization and capture can generate 3.02 employment with $246,720 labor income and 0.67 employment with $55,244 labor income, respectively, while the BECCUS pathways of the biopower with CO2 utilization and capture can generate 2.33 employment with $189,071 labor income and 0.63 employment with $50,182 labor income, respectively. Considering the spatial distribution of the national electricity generation, the large-scale deployment of such four pathways could have a significant decarbonization effect on the energy sectors. Especially for the central states of the US, the CCUS deployment can further facilitate the transition to a decarbonized economy while boosting local employment as well.

Embargo Reason

Publication Pending

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