Semester

Summer

Date of Graduation

2024

Document Type

Thesis

Degree Type

MA

College

Eberly College of Arts and Sciences

Department

History

Committee Chair

James Siekmeier

Committee Co-Chair

Joseph Hodge

Committee Member

Joseph Hodge

Committee Member

Sean Lawrence

Committee Member

Kerry Longhurst

Abstract

This study discusses the origins and development of the South China Sea dispute. It briefly analyzes the overlapping maritime claims, their justifications and legal aspects, and key clashes between the actors across the second half of the 20th century. It uses a historical perspective to assess the present-day conflict. The study discusses the impact of international agreements, national policies, claimants' domestic factors, and external influences connected to the geopolitical situation of the period to determine how they influenced the dispute. The analysis reveals that amidst more pressing global events, the South China Sea issue was frequently overlooked by the international community, and coupled with the region's volatile environment, the dispute escalated gradually. This process further accelerated from the mid-20th century onward. While activities of the involved states in the late 20th century show they often prioritize self-interest over the risks of conflict exacerbation, their policymaking was and remains largely determined by domestic nationalist pressure and issues of political legitimacy. Meanwhile, the role of the US in the region is significant. However, it brings contradictory results. International agreements have had mixed effects on the conflict as well. The most recent 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea established clearer rules than its predecessor. However, it lacks enforcement mechanisms to regulate the conflict. Moreover, it indirectly enabled the South China Sea nations to assert excessive and largely intractable claims. This study concludes that, given the limited effectiveness of international law and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), along with China's rise and the United States' countering activities, the region will likely remain turbulent, and the dispute might escalate further. It is suggested that claimant states increase multilateral cooperation and combat domestic nationalist pressures by justifying it as a necessary response to the environmental crisis of the sea, which indeed slowly started to affect numerous nationals' livelihoods.

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