Author ORCID Identifier

https://orcid.org/0009-0005-0328-543X

Semester

Summer

Date of Graduation

2026

Document Type

Dissertation

Degree Type

PhD

College

Chambers College of Business and Economics

Department

Economics

Committee Chair

Roger Congleton

Committee Member

Nathaniel Burke

Committee Member

Arabinda Basistha

Committee Member

Noah Trudeau

Abstract

This dissertation consists of three empirical essays examining how economic and political outcomes respond to changes in public policy, information, and local economic conditions. Across the three studies, the dissertation applies empirical methods to questions in political economy, economic forecasting, and regional economics, with particular attention to how the effects of economic shocks and policy changes vary across individuals, markets, and geographic areas.

The first essay examines the role of policy salience in electoral outcomes. Building on rational-choice and median-voter models, it argues that voters may respond disproportionately to policies that impose concentrated and highly visible costs, even when those policies generate broader aggregate benefits. This argument is examined using the mortgage interest deduction provisions of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, which reduced the maximum mortgage eligible for the deduction from $1 million to $750,000. Using county-level data from the American Community Survey and presidential election results from 2016 and 2020, the analysis finds that counties with a greater prevalence of million-dollar mortgages experienced larger declines in Republican vote share, with particularly strong effects in swing states. These findings suggest that policy salience can produce electoral consequences that differ from predictions based solely on aggregate welfare or the preferences of the median voter.

The second essay investigates whether online search behavior can improve forecasts of state-level unemployment rates. Using monthly unemployment data and Google Trends search intensity for the terms “unemployment,” “SUV,” and “truck,” the study evaluates whether lagged search activity contains predictive information beyond that captured by autoregressive models of unemployment. Forecast performance is evaluated using root mean squared error and Diebold–Mariano tests. The results indicate that models incorporating searches for “SUV” and “truck” consistently improve forecast accuracy across multiple forecasting windows, suggesting that online search behavior related to durable goods provides forward-looking information about local economic conditions.

The third essay examines the effects of military base closures on the spatial distribution of economic activity in urban areas. Focusing on the closure of Brooks Air Force Base in San Antonio, Texas, the study applies a monocentric city framework and bank-level deposit data from the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation to assess whether economic activity shifted following the closure. The results provide little evidence of a statistically significant change in the spatial distribution of economic activity attributable to the base closure. Although some reallocation of deposits occurs across locations, these changes are not systematically related to proximity to the former base. The findings indicate that local economies may exhibit substantial resilience to large federal spending shocks, particularly when closure and redevelopment are accompanied by prior planning and adjustment.

Taken together, the three essays contribute to the broader applied economics literature by demonstrating how the consequences of economic and policy changes depend on the distribution of costs and benefits, the information available to economic agents, and the capacity of local economies to adjust to structural shocks. The dissertation highlights the importance of examining behavioral responses, forward-looking information, and spatial adjustment when evaluating the economic and political consequences of policy and institutional change.

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