Document Type
Working Paper
Publication Date
6-2025
College/Unit
Chambers College of Business and Economics
Document Number
25-01
Department/Program/Center
Economics
Abstract
This paper analyzes firm hiring decisions under uncertainty about worker productivity utilizing quasi-experimental variation generated by age requirements with specified cutoff dates. We exploit an exogenous September 15 cutoff date in the National Hockey League entry draft to estimate a sharp RDD and find evidence of risk aversion by teams when drafting players. Specifically, teams appear risk averse in early rounds, but risk neutral in later rounds, supporting predictions made by models in the literature. Additional evidence from a triple differences model shows relative-age-based statistical discrimination in the draft, providing implications for firm hiring strategies. We also find suggestive evidence that this discrimination is partly driven by experience, and more accurate statistical discrimination is associated with greater team success.
Digital Commons Citation
Hua, Chengyuan and Humphreys, Brad, "Hiring Decisions under Productivity Uncertainty: Risk Preferences and Inaccurate Statistical Discrimination in NHL Entry Drafts" (2025). Economics Faculty Working Papers Series. 255.
https://researchrepository.wvu.edu/econ_working-papers/255