Document Type
Working Paper
Publication Date
6-2025
College/Unit
Chambers College of Business and Economics
Document Number
25-01
Department/Program/Center
Economics
Abstract
This paper analyzes firm hiring decisions under uncertainty about worker productivity. We exploit an exogenous September 15 cutoff date in the National Hockey League entry draft to estimate a sharp RDD and find evidence of risk aversion by teams when drafting players. Specifically, teams appear risk averse in early draft rounds, but risk neutral in later rounds, supporting model predictions by a prior study. Triple-differences results show inaccurate relative-age-based statistical discrimination in the draft, providing implications for team drafting strategies. We find suggestive evidence that experience drives this discrimination, and positive correlation be- tween accuracy of statistical discrimination and team success.
Digital Commons Citation
Hua, Chengyuan and Humphreys, Brad, "Hiring Decisions under Productivity Uncertainty: Risk Preferences and Inaccurate Statistical Discrimination in NHL Entry Drafts" (2025). Economics Faculty Working Papers Series. 255.
https://researchrepository.wvu.edu/econ_working-papers/255