Date of Graduation


Document Type


Degree Type



Statler College of Engineering and Mineral Resources


Petroleum and Natural Gas Engineering

Committee Chair

Kashy Aminian

Committee Member

Samuel Ameri

Committee Member

Ali Takbiri


The increasingly prevalent practice of unconventional technologies has called for the need for the critical analysis of production decline rates to meet economic targets. The high early time production returns and transient flow make matching a production curve to known methods of decline curve analysis problematic.

This research focuses on finding a technique that best fits a known production curve and then applying that technique to another well to check its accuracy. The goal is to find the earliest time of production data necessary to predict an accurate production curve over the lifespan of the well. This is essential to the industry as early prediction is crucial to cost analysis.

The data used in this research is from research wells 4H and 6H. First, the data is simulated using generic simulation software. The data is then exported to excel and analyzed. The data that has been analyzed comes from production data of the lifespan of the well with actual completion practices and then looked at for each fracture.

This research has determined that the hyperbolic decline curve best predicts future returns for production in the Marcellus shale. Testing the methods on the MIP 4H and then applying to the MIP 6H, it is clear that the approach was successful in matching. The research also shows that in order to predict using the hyperbolic decline curve 6 to 8 months of data gives the best fit.