Document Type

Working Paper

Publication Date

8-28-2024

College/Unit

Regional Research Institute

Document Number

Working Paper Number 2024-02

Department/Program/Center

Regional Research Institute

Abstract

New York City is set to implement the Financial District and Seaport Climate Resilience Master Plan (FiDi), aiming to develop infrastructure capable of addressing or mitigating the effects of climate change on Lower Manhattan. This area faces significant risks from daily tidal flooding, rainfall, coastal storms, hurricane effects, and rising temperatures. With an estimated investment of $5 to $7 billion to be spent over 15 years, our study focuses on estimating the plan’s economic impacts in Lower Manhattan, across other boroughs of New York City, and throughout the entire state. We utilize a multi-regional input-output (MRIO) modeling approach, constructing the MRIO for regions defined by the counties of Richmond, New York, Kings, Queens, Bronx, and the rest of the state while separating Lower Manhattan from the rest of New York County. We utilize the total estimated investment (costs) as a direct investment of final demand shock to compute intra and inter-regional effects (benefits). Addressing financial and planning uncertainties using S-curve modeling, we conduct a total cost-benefit analysis incorporating environmental effects. Our results indicate that the plan generates more benefits than costs throughout its implementation and operation. However, concentrated environmental impacts are observed during certain implementation periods, with spill-over effects to other regions analyzed within the inter-regional system through industrial interaction and the income multiplication effect.

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