Date of Graduation
2004
Document Type
Thesis
Degree Type
MS
Committee Chair
David R. Martinelli
Abstract
This research evaluates the theory and practice of current truck forecasting methodologies. The theoretical workings of several model classes are evaluated according to their accuracy, applicability, data requirements, costs, and other factors. A foundation of literature review is conducted to assess the state of the art and practice of classical forecasting methods that may be applied to truck volumes. These include facility traffic flow factoring methods (trend analysis); commodity-based origin-destination trip table factoring methods; truck trip tables within overall passenger flow models; commodity-based four-step forecasting models; and economic activity models. A survey of best practices for state DOT’s is then conducted to determine an overview of state successes and failures with the various methods of forecasting truck travel. Prior to the evaluation a set of criteria were generated. It was found from evaluation of the various forecasting methods being applied in different states that trend analysis methods would be most suited for application in West Virginia. This is due to the fact that it can make use of existing data sources at no additional expense to the DOT. In addition it offers flexibility in the functional forms and the incorporated variables. The systematic evaluation developed in this research presents an adaptive evaluation format that can easily be transferred for use by a state DOT.
Recommended Citation
Rebovich, Andrew J., "An evaluation of statewide truck forecasting methods." (2004). Graduate Theses, Dissertations, and Problem Reports (ETD). 10810.
https://researchrepository.wvu.edu/etd/10810