Semester

Spring

Date of Graduation

2024

Document Type

Dissertation

Degree Type

PhD

College

Statler College of Engineering and Mineral Resources

Department

Civil and Environmental Engineering

Committee Chair

Leslie Hopkinson

Committee Member

John Quaranta

Committee Member

Lian-Shin Lin

Committee Member

Aaron Maxwell

Committee Member

Yoojung Yoon

Abstract

Estimates of probable maximum precipitation (PMP) are necessary for designing the maximum reservoir storage necessary to prevent dam overtopping. Recent investigations in Ohio, Virginia, and Pennsylvania imply that reducing PMP rainfall estimates in West Virginia may be appropriate; however, additional studies in this data deficient region with changing climate is necessary before any reductions are contemplated. The objective of this study was to re-evaluate PMP for the Howard Creek Dam watershed in West Virginia. The 6-hr, 10 mi2 PMP was evaluated for current (2019) and projected (2100) climates and compared to the design PMP. Then, the impact of the PMP alternatives was determined for Howard Creek Dam, which was selected to be a case study of the region delineated in Hydrometeorological Report No. 51 as a data deficient region. The estimated current (2019) PMP is 4% greater than the design PMP, and the projected (2100) PMP is 14% greater than the design PMP. Analysis of the dynamic, nonstationary climate anticipated for the Howard Creek Dam, designed for a stationary climate, shows inadequate storage that will increase the likelihood of dam overtopping. Therefore, this study cannot support a reduction in PMP for the Howard Creek Dam watershed and similar surrounding watersheds.

The site-specific Howard Creek Dam study also showed further analysis was needed for West Virginia on a statewide scale. Seven additional dams of similar watershed size were selected as part of the statewide PMP study, capturing the expanse of West Virginia through a range of elevation, latitude, and hydrometeorological zones. The additional sites were combined with the Howard Creek Dam study to create statewide PMP maps as updated figures of the Hydrometeorological Report No. 51 deliverables specific to West Virginia. Probable maximum precipitation estimates were completed for 10 mi2 watersheds, at both the 6- and 24-hr event durations. The current (2020) statewide estimates were updated using storm and dewpoint data through present day and showed changes to PMP across different areas of the state for both event durations. Results ranged from a 10% decrease to a 10% increase. Projected (2120) statewide PMP estimates were calculated based on the observed trends in dewpoint and were projected another 100 years to recalculate PMP. The projected (2120) PMP values show an increase from 22% to 27% over the current (2020) statewide PMP values. The changes observed in PMP have the potential to impact the storage of dams over the life of the structure under current hydrologic design criteria.

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