Author ORCID Identifier
Semester
Spring
Date of Graduation
2024
Document Type
Thesis
Degree Type
MS
College
Statler College of Engineering and Mineral Resources
Department
Civil and Environmental Engineering
Committee Chair
Yoojung Yoon, Ph.D.
Committee Member
V. Dimitra Pyrialakou, Ph.D.
Committee Member
David R. Martinelli, Ph.D.
Abstract
Urban land areas are experiencing a more rapid expansion compared to their population growth on a global scale. This phenomenon, known as urban sprawl, is characterized by low-density development in the outskirts of cities. This unplanned urban growth leads to changing urban transportation patterns, posing a threat to sustainable development. In response, government agencies implement growth management practices, with transportation management strategies playing a crucial role in achieving sustainable urban growth. However, developing effective growth management strategies is difficult because of several challenges, including limited understanding of the key influencing factors, the complex interdependencies among these factors, and the uncertainties arising from their interactions. Additionally, the extensive timeframes required for government policy planning further amplify uncertainties, complicating informed decision-making for long-term urban transportation management.
By addressing these gaps in literature, this research aims to develop an integrated framework for establishing long-term transportation management strategies, emphasizing sustainable urban growth. The first stage of the study focuses on identifying the key factors influencing urban transportation decisions in the United States. An extensive review of the literature using the PESTEL (Political, Economic, Social, Technological, Environmental, and Legal) tool reveals a list of 46 important factors. The study then narrows down the most significant factors in the context of urban growth based on survey responses from 32 experts, using analytical tools such as the Relative Importance Index (RII) and the Mann-Whitney U-test. In the next stage, the interdependencies (cause-effect relationships) among the top-ranked influential factors are identified using the fuzzy DEMATEL (decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory) model, analyzing survey results from 27 experts. Subsequently, to address the issue of uncertainty, four plausible urban scenarios and corresponding transportation management strategies are developed. The scenarios depict urban conditions over the next 20 years, while the strategies within each scenario focus on sustainable urban growth. The scenario-based approach is used in this stage, facilitated by two rounds of Delphi surveys with nine experts. Finally, a decision-making support tool (DST) is developed utilizing the information obtained from the four scenarios.
The findings from the fuzzy DEMATEL analysis reveal that Land Use Planning and Traffic Congestion are the critical effect factors, which are strongly influenced by the five driving causal factors, Urbanization, Government Regulations, Demand for Increased Mobility, Perception of Public Transit Use, and Political Stability. The four scenarios highlight key strategies across varying urban settings, including promoting sustainable transportation, multimodal systems, mixed land use, high-density development, transportation demand management (e.g., telecommuting, carpooling, public transit), city planning (e.g., greenspace, redevelopment incentives), improving quality of life (e.g., affordable housing, air quality), and boosting political stability. A validation test of the DST conducted with five experts in Morgantown, West Virginia, indicated that, over the next two decades, Morgantown is expected to experience relaxed land use planning and significant traffic congestion.
This research provides significance by analyzing the effects of urban growth in different scenarios and offering more informed management strategies for both new and existing urban transportation systems. The developed DST is expected to assist transportation agencies in making informed decisions about the future of their urban transportation systems through strategic assessments. Additionally, by developing a framework integrating various tools and approaches, the research introduces a replicable methodology for future work.
Recommended Citation
Rahman, M Imtiaz, "An Integrated Framework for Establishing Long-Term Transportation Management Strategies Promoting Sustainable Urban Growth" (2024). Graduate Theses, Dissertations, and Problem Reports. 12460.
https://researchrepository.wvu.edu/etd/12460
Embargo Reason
Publication Pending
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