Semester

Summer

Date of Graduation

2025

Document Type

Problem/Project Report

Degree Type

MS

College

Statler College of Engineering and Mineral Resources

Department

Petroleum and Natural Gas Engineering

Committee Chair

Kashy Aminian

Committee Co-Chair

Mohamed Nouri Salem El Sgher

Committee Member

Samuel Ameri

Abstract

Well drilling, since its inception, has always carried an intrinsic quantity of risk. Economically, the evolution of data analytics and the tools available to operators provide the opportunity to transform the lessons learned from previous well drilling endeavors into bottom line improvements. Additionally, methods for forecasting and risk management of potential trouble areas have significantly advanced due to the abundance of empirical data from prior drilling operations. Probabilistic Risk Assessment is a viable method through which risk can be tracked and mitigated in project management. Coupled with this data, the usage of Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) provides a quantified, trackable approach to risk management and mitigation, with respect to safety and economic risk. As projects are budgeted, it is difficult to price in risk mitigation to outside vendors. By integrating PRA into the process, it will provide an internal tracking mechanism that can be tracked and refined as more data is provided in the project process. Faults and the probability of their occurrence can be determined by subject matter experts within the project team. Fault trees analyze the causes of failure. These faults are then coupled together to create event trees, which analyze the respective consequences of failure. Event trees occur in sequence, leading to a variety of final end states, each having a unique set of success and failures. Combining fault tree analysis with event tree sequencing provides a comprehensive look at possible end states, and thus, the number of different economic or safety outcomes of a project. With each successive project, previous data can be integrated to refine fault predictions and identify new sequences of failure or lack thereof. Using PRA can aid investors without deep technical knowledge to leverage risk assessment to forecast economics of a drilling project accurately and identify safety hazards.

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