Date of Graduation

1997

Document Type

Dissertation/Thesis

Abstract

This study's central purpose is to provide information that can be used to help understand and, thus, increase U.S. exports of poultry products. It emphasizes international broiler market responsiveness to U.S. export prices, the impact of currency realignments on imports from the U.S. (exchange rate impacts), per capita incomes of importing countries, the prices of substitutes, and government interventions in poultry markets. To investigate the interrelated U.S. broiler export market, a multiple equation econometric model of U.S. broiler exports is developed. The theoretical framework of the broiler exports model is the structural time series model (STSM), developed by Harvey and others. The model is recast in state space system and estimated by means of the Kalman filter method. Based on the broiler export reduced form model and impact multipliers results, the study concludes that: (1) Real exchange rate movements are a significant factor in determining trade. (2) There has been a persistent effect of tariff rate and import quotas imposed by Mexico and Canada, respectively. (3) The response of broiler export supplies to own-price changes is inelastic, but, broiler production reacts rapidly to increases in export demand. (4) Production of broilers by importing countries is negatively related to demand for U.S. broilers. (5) Feed prices, productivity and technological progress are significant determinants of U.S. broiler supplies. (6) A substantial portion of the increases in per capita demand for broilers in recent years seems to have been caused by changes in tastes and preferences. Policy implications of this study are that the U.S. can increase its broiler exports more effectively by: (1) Making a consistent supply available for export through such means as investing in cold storage facilities. (2) Strengthening the import demand for U.S. broilers through the USDA's Market Promotion Program, efforts by broiler processing companies, and export promotion subsidies. (3) Providing incentive price policies to both feed grains and oilseeds (particularly soybeans) that have important effects on the poultry industry. (4) Extending efforts on international macroeconomic policy coordination (rather than depending strictly on domestic sectoral policies) and working toward elimination of trade distortion practices through NAFTA, GATT and other trade negotiations.

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